Biden Losing Some 2020 Voters to Trump and Lagging in Support Among Women

A recent New York Times/Siena poll sheds light on President Joe Biden’s current standing, revealing concerning trends for his reelection bid. With eight months remaining until the general election, Biden finds himself trailing former President Donald Trump in a rematch among likely voters.

Shift in Voter Support

The Times/Siena survey highlights two significant findings: Biden is experiencing defection among supporters who backed him in the 2020 election, and he is neck-and-neck with Trump among women, a crucial demographic that favored him by 11 points in the previous election.

Overall Voter Preference

According to the poll, Trump holds a lead over Biden among likely voters, with 48% supporting Trump compared to 44% for Biden.

Voter Retention and Defection

Despite efforts from former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to sway GOP voters away from Trump, 97% of those who supported Trump in 2020 express intent to do so again this year. Conversely, Biden is retaining only 85% of his 2020 supporters, with 9% indicating they will now support Trump.

Significance of Close Margins

With the possibility of the election hinging on tight margins in swing states, even slight shifts in support could prove pivotal for both candidates.

Gender Gap in Support

Women, who played a crucial role in Biden’s victory in 2020, are now evenly split between Trump and Biden, with Trump leading by a narrow margin of 47% to 46% among likely female voters. In contrast, men favor Trump over Biden by a wider margin of 49% to 42%.

Economic Messaging Challenges

One of Biden’s primary challenges lies in his messaging on the economy. Despite touting strong job growth and low unemployment rates, the impact of inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic has left many Americans pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects.

Economic Sentiment Among Voters

The Times/Siena poll reveals that 50% of likely voters rate the economy as “poor,” while only 28% view it as “good” or “excellent.” Approximately 22% of voters perceive the economy as “only fair.”

In conclusion, as the election approaches, Biden faces the task of shoring up support among key demographics, addressing concerns about the economy, and retaining voters who previously supported him.